COST 731:

Uncertainty propagation in advanced hydrometeorological forecast systems

Quantifying uncertainty in flood forecasting is a difficult task, given the multiple and strongly non-linear model components involved in such a system. The COST 731 Action (Rossa et al., 2009) is a European effort which deals with the quantification of forecast uncertainty in hydro-meteorological forecast systems and addresses three major lines of development:

1) combining meteorological and hydrological models to form a forecast chain,
2) propagating uncertainty information through this chain and make it available to end users in a suitable form,
3) advancing high-resolution numerical weather prediction precipitation forecasts by using non-conventional observations from, for instance, radar to determine details in the initial conditions on scales smaller than what can be resolved by conventional observing systems.

Recognizing the interdisciplinarity of the challenge, COST 731 has organized its work forming Working Groups (WG) at the interfaces between the different scientific disciplines involved, i.e. between observation and atmospheric and hydrological modeling (WG1), between atmospheric and hydrologic modelling (WG2) and between hydrologic modelling and end-users (WG3). MeteoSwiss is chairing WG2 and doing research in the field of nowcasting orgraphic precipitation (PhD-Project). More